Case studies › Method
Method and independence
Lothbury Research publishes event-driven case studies on small-cap companies where a disclosed transaction sits at a price the market has not caught up with. The method is deliberately narrow: one corporate action per note, reduced to figures the company has already published.
How a note is built
Each note starts from the primary document — a filing, a scheme circular, a company release — and takes only the terms stated in it. The comparisons are then arithmetic. 42 times a revenue line is a division, not a forecast, and anyone with the same filing can check it in a minute.
Every note carries its inputs in a table and names its sources at the foot, so the working can be reproduced rather than trusted. Where a number is the target company's own disclosure rather than audited figures, the note says so.
What the notes deliberately avoid
- No ratings and no price targets of our own.
- No forecasts beyond what a filed deadline already fixes.
- No third-party target quoted without the firm's name beside it.
- No conclusion that the evidence section has not already reached.
Where a case breaks
Every note carries a section describing what would falsify it, placed before the conclusion rather than after it. If the downside cannot be stated plainly, the note is not ready.
Independence
Lothbury Research is independent. It does not manage money, does not provide execution, and takes no payment from the companies covered. Notes are distributed free of charge, carry no subscription and no gate.
Unless a note says otherwise, no position is held in the security covered. Notes are published for information only and are not investment advice. They are marketing communications rather than regulated research, and are not prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. The full policy sits on its own page: Independence.
Corrections
Where a figure is wrong the note is corrected and the correction recorded at the foot of that page. Notes are dated and are not silently rewritten. Write to press@lothburyresearch.com.