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Arista and the momentum cohort have one input left: order backlog
Momentum names in networking are not really being bought on growth. They are bought on visibility, and visibility is a disclosure choice.
The moment a company stops breaking out backlog or deferred revenue, the market loses its ability to forecast and applies a lower multiple to the same numbers. The revenue rarely falls first; the multiple does.
So the thing to track is not the share price but the disclosure line. A quiet change in segment reporting is often the earliest warning available.
Written from public disclosure. Where a figure is quoted it is the company's own, dated in the text; no figure here is a forecast by Lothbury Research.
Published for information only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation. This note is not prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No position is held in the security covered.